Research

This research introduces a methodological framework for analyzing strategic interactions in oligopoly settings where firms have private information on costs, further enhancing our understanding of competition and market behavior. The developed framework was applied to the crude-oil market, demonstrating its practical relevance.

We use an advanced model of the global economy to consider a set of scenarios consistent with the proposal to impose a minimum 60% tariff against Chinese imports and blanket minimum 10% tariff against all other US imports. The basis for the tariff rates is a proposal from former President Elect Donald Trump. Our central finding is that a global trade war between the United States and the rest of the world at these tariff rates would cost the US economy over $910 billion.